Expansion of the Neolithic in Southeastern Europe: wave of advance fueled by high fertility and scalar stress

Abstract

What was driving the migrations of the first farmers across Europe? How were demography, society, and environment interconnected to give rise to the macroregional expansion pattern that archaeology is revealing? We simulate the demography and spatial behavior of the first farming communities in the Central Balkans in order to infer the parameters and mechanisms of the Neolithic expansion in this part of Europe. We compare the simulation output to the empirical record of radiocarbon dates in order to systematically evaluate which expansion scenarios were the most probable. Our results suggest that if the expansion of the Neolithic unfolded in accord with the specific wave of advance model that we presented in this paper, the expansion was driven by very high fertility and community fission to avoid social tensions. The simulation suggests that the number of children born by an average Neolithic woman who lived through her entire fertile period was around 8 children or more, which is on the high end of the ethnographically recorded human total fertility rate spectrum. The most plausible simulated fission threshold values are between 50 and 100 people, which is usually smaller than the estimated environmental carrying capacity. This would suggest that the primary reason for the community fission and for seeking out new land was social rather than ecological.